The Arrowood Dispatch Arizona GOP Primary and Michigan Primary Predictions

Arizona and Michigan
1) Romney takes both
2) Santorum takes 2nd in both
3) Paul a bit behind in 3rd in both
4) Gingrich brings up the rear.

Posted in Politics | Leave a comment

The Arrowood Dispatch Colorado GOP Caucus, Minnesota GOP Caucus, and Missouri Primary Predictions

Colorado
1) Romney
2) Santorum
3) Paul
4) Gingrich

Minnesota
1) Paul
2) Santorum
3) Romney
4) Gingrich

Missouri
1) Santorum
2) Romney
3) Paul
4) Gingrich

 

Posted in National Politics, Politics | Leave a comment

The Arrowood Dispatch Maine GOP Caucus Predictions

1) Ron Paul

2) Mitt Romney

3) Newt Gingrich

4) Rick Santorum

Posted in National Politics, Politics | Leave a comment

The Arrowood Dispatch Nevada GOP Caucus Predictions

1) Mitt

2) Paul in a bit of a surprise

3) Gingrich

4) Santorum

Posted in National Politics, Politics | Leave a comment

The Arrowood Dispatch Florida GOP Primary Predictions

1) Mitt

2) Newt

3) Santorum

4) Paul

Posted in National Politics, Politics | Leave a comment

The Arrowood Dispatch South Carolina GOP Primary Predictions

1) Newt Gingrich - Newt slows down Mitt’s momentum and disrupts the coronation of Mitt Romney.

2) Mitt Romney – Mitt Romney goes from winning being the first candidate to win Iowa and New Hampshire and having a big win in South Carolina to losing Iowa, winning New Hampshire, and losing South Carolina.  Will there be some panic?

3)  Ron Paul - Ron Paul has taken it easy with South Carolina, a state he did not expect to do well in.  As has always been the case, he does better than the polls show to get a strong third.

4) Rick Santorum – Another weak showing but in a state he should have been able to do well in.  The social conservatives are lining up behind Newt and Santorum might as well withdraw from the race… but he won’t.

Posted in National Politics, Politics | Leave a comment

The Arrowood Dispatch New Hampshire GOP Primary Predictions

1) Mitt Romney – It appears that he has obtained an insurmountable lead in New Hampshire, but 2nd will be much closer than most believe.

2) Ron Paul - A poll was released recently that listed Ron Paul as one of the strongest candidates in the general election.  Paul will poll higher than previously believed.

3) Jon Huntsman - Huntsman will finish third, but won’t be as close to second as some had predicted.  While he needed to finish top 3 to get a better position, underperforming may actually hurt.

4) Newt Gingrich - A fourth place finish will prove Santorum was just another flavor of the week.  Gingrich will get stronger in South Carolina and Santorum will drop.

5) Rick Santorum – Santorum really falls flat if he finishes here.

6) Rick Perry - Perry will finish weakly before South Carolina.

 

Posted in National Politics, Politics | Leave a comment

The Arrowood Dispatch Iowa GOP Caucus Predictions

The 2012 Race for the White House is well underway.  In one day the first ballots will be cast.  Trying to predict the finish is nearly impossible, but why not?

1) Rick Santorum – With many potential caucus-goers having not made up their minds as of yet and with so many willing to change their vote, Rick Santorum really stands to gain.  He has hit his stride at the best possible time.  No one has the ability to come at him now that he is surging due to a lack of time and he could very possibly become the anti-Romney.  The question is this.  Will his statements saying he would bomb Iran as president help or hurt?

2) Ron Paul - If the anti-Romney does not consolidate behind Santorum, Paul is definitely able to move to the top spot.  That being said, I think it will lineup behind Santorum.  Polls cannot accurately determine how many Democrat cross-overs will vote in the GOP caucus.  If it is higher than normal, Paul can really have a shot.  If it is lower than expected, Paul will have to rely solely on the ability of his supporters to turn out more so than the supporters of the other candidates.

3) Mitt Romney – Romney voters really have the least amount of reason to turnout.  He does not bring any type of excitement whether it be that positive excitement that Romney gives nor does he have the excitement to get votes against another candidate.  The perceived frontrunner has the ability to take a major hit or he could remain at the top in Iowa.

4) Rick Perry - Within a point in polling with Newt, Perry will get some of the undecideds coming his way whereas Newt is still heading downward.  The lack of organization will hurt.

5) Newt Gingrich -  Still falling, Newt will find himself just ahead of Bachmann when the votes are counted.  He is hurting his totals by saying he doesn’t think he will win.  This could help put Perry ahead of him.

6) Michelle Bachmann - Unable to gain traction since winning the Ames Straw Poll, Bachmann will finish last out of the candidates who have run in Iowa.

7) Jon Huntsman - Huntsman chose not to be active in Iowa.  It will show in the results.

Posted in National News, National Politics, News, Politics | Leave a comment

The Ron Paul Problem

I have read where several people have ideas about Ron Paul and how he is a problem for the GOP to have a chance against Obama. When one adds up those statements, it really does not add up.

1) Ron Paul has a small group of supporters.
2) Ron Paul does not have any appeal to the average GOP voter.
3) Ron Paul is getting his votes from Democrats trying to influence the GOP nomination.
4) Ron Paul followers will not vote for any other GOP nominee.
5) A Ron Paul 3rd Party run will destroy the GOP chances of beating Obama.

My question is this. If 1-4 is true, why would people worry that such a small amount of people who wouldn’t support the GOP nominee anyway might vote for a 3rd Party candidate?

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Why Herman Cain is a Bad Choice for the Republican Nomination

I like Herman Cain.  While he is not my choice in the GOP nomination process, I would not have had many qualms about voting for him over Barack Obama.  As he is getting the attention of a frontrunner, it is becoming more clear that he is not a good choice for the nomination and possibly even not a good choice for the presidency if he does become the GOP nominee.  (I am not saying he is not better than Obama but that he is not a good choice.)

However you want to look at it, 9-9-9 is a plan that deals solely with tax policy.  It does nothing about spending.  It also creates a new tax stream.  It doesn’t replace one.  What we need is someone who is going to CUT spending and government.  What we need is someone who is going to make sure taxes are LOWERED, not simply rearranged.

Cain’s campaign is also a complete disaster.  He is a likeable guy.  This is why he continues to be at the top though it is obvious he doesn’t know a whole heck of a lot.  Here is a guy who is running for President of the United States who didn’t know China had nukes, nor did he know anything about “the right of return” in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.  He also didn’t know what the term “neoconservative” meant.  He also says an electric fence needs to be built along the Mexico border, then changes the story to say it was a joke, and then revisited the idea of it possibly being electrified.  Cain said he would not allow a Muslim to serve under him but later flip-flopped.  He said a local area had the right to overrule the freedom of worship (which I attribute to an overzealous attempt to seize on the 10th Amendment), and has also said that state governments have a right to limit the 2nd Amendment (see last note).  [The 10th Amendment actually says anything not mentioned in the Constitution is left to the states and the people... Not that the 1st or 2nd Amendment is left to the states or the people.]  There was also the misspeak concerning abortion.  It is actually humorous that “strength and clarity” is this guys campaign mantra.

Tons of people are saying we don’t need a professional politician but that doesn’t mean we need Ronald McDonald in the White House.  People are fine with politicians but we don’t like the political games.  We do like the idea that politicians at least know what issues are about even if we disagree with what their stance is on an issue.

Now comes the race card.  Cain is not being hit because of his race.  He is being hit because he is ahead in an election.  He is also being hit because he is an easy target.

I am not down with those defending Cain.  Cain does not need to be defended.  Cain needs to defend himself and say those things did not happen.  Motivation does not matter.  What matters is whether or not Cain sexually harassed females who were working with him.

Posted in Constitutional Issues, National News, National Politics, News, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

2012 GOP Race Update

Michelle Bachmann - Still free falling.  She is trying to set herself up as the anti-Obama.  It isn’t working.  There are no less than four men ahead of you in polling.  Three of them are opposite Obama.  We need to see why you are better candidates than your GOP rivals.  We know any of you are better than Obama already.

Herman Cain – The wheels are falling off 9-9-9.  All the other candidates are attacking it.  Whether it does or not, people are going to feel that it opens to many veins of taxes to be raised at a later time.  If 9-9-9 is destroyed, so is Cain.  On a side note, Cain is a very likeable guy.  He just talks before he understands and thinks out issues.  He then has to flip-flop on issues.  He hurts himself each time he does.  I worry about the fact that he has little knowledge on several issues.  He generally comes around to the right side of issues, but will he once he gets some power?  Things like saying whether a state follows the 2nd Amendment is up to the individual states is troubling.

Newt Gingrich - Newt is lying low.  He isn’t making big waves.  He throws out one-liners consistently.  He doesn’t need to do a lot.  He needs to hang in and surge at the right time.  He is a solid performer that needs to stay in the game to have a chance late.

Jon Huntsman – Huntsman is making a power play for New Hampshire.  He is attacking the frontrunner, Romney, for taking part in Nevada, who is moving up in the primary schedule, threatening New Hampshire’s status as first in the nation.  All his eggs are in New Hampshire’s basket.  If he wins, he gives himself a better shot but not a sure thing.  It is all he has.  If he loses New Hampshire, he is definitely done.

Ron Paul - Paul has set himself up well with his budget.  He has even gotten backing on his plan from Rush Limbaugh.  He is setting himself up much better than most anyone could have expected.  He is sitting at the number one spot in several power rankings for Iowa.  Nevada is expected to come down between Romney and Paul.  If he gets those two early states and people are serious about cutting the budget, he has a chance.  If he gets neither of those states he has set a tone for the debate this go around.

Rick Perry – Made a good play to get back in the game.  He went hard after Romney and Cain.  He had to in order to get back in.  He over-played his hand and may drop.  The one thing that may save him is that while people do not like negativity, it does work or politicians would have stopped it long ago.

Mitt Romney – All he has to do is develop a good defense and not get too hot.  As a frontrunner just try and stay there until the end.

Rick Santorum - Why is he still in this?

Posted in National News, National Politics, News, Politics | Leave a comment

Romney on the Issues: Abortion

Posted in Focus on the Issues, National News, National Politics, News, Politics | Leave a comment

Ames Straw Poll Results

Michelle Bachmann 4823 votes (28.55%):  Bachmann gets a huge boost.  She cements herself as a front-runner, and I would argue this may boost her up to the frontrunner.

Ron Paul 4761 votes (27.65%):  Ron Paul gets a boost.  He certainly does not become a front-runner.  His candidacy is growing but not at the point where he would win if the elections were today.  He will have to continue to grow his grassroots and get people to believe he can win.  Many of the talking heads will still discount his ability to win, but some may view him as a possibility and take a closer look.  If foreign policy is not a major issue and the economy gets worse, expect him to have a good shot in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada.  If foreign policy is the major issue, that will hurt him with the rank and file Republicans.  The election is a long ways off, but if he were to win in one of the early states, he could have a shot.

Tim Pawlenty 2293 votes (13.6%):  Pawlenty is able to stay in the race with a third place finish, but this makes Pawlenty less relevant.

Rick Santorum 1657 votes (9.8%): Santorum’s expectations were low.  He did better than most might have thought.  This gives him a boost and makes him or more serious candidate.

Herman Cain 1456 votes (8.6%): Cain’s showing in Iowa is a hit to Cain.  Cain did not have high expectations but a finish behind Santorum really has to hurt.  Don’t be surprised to see Cain drop out if he is unable to gain back some traction soon.

Rick Perry 700+ votes (write-in candidate): Perry slighted the Ames Straw Poll by announcing his candidacy during the poll.  He still was able to get a high showing even as a write-in candidate.

Mitt Romney 567 votes: Really, who cares if you didn’t spend money to try and win the poll?  If you are a front-runner, you do not lose this badly in a poll.  Also, if you are a front-runner, you do not lose to someone who is a write-in candidate who also did not get into Iowa.  Mitt Romney has to be hurt by this.

Newt Gingrich 385 votes: This should end the Gingrich candidacy.

Jon Huntsman 69 votes: This should end the Huntsman candidacy.

Thad McCotter 35 votes:  McCotter exceeded even his own expectations.  Sadly… well… that is just sad.

Posted in National News, National Politics, News, Politics | Leave a comment

Norway a Reminder of Why Liberty is Important

Recently I posted a video of Herman Cain stating that he felt that Americans had the right to choose whether or not a mosque or any religious building can be built in their community.

It was pointed out to me that when dealing with Islam there is a worry about Sharia Law.  This is an understandable fear as Sharia Law is the supreme law the Muslim world.  It should not be a fear here as the Constitution is the supreme law of the land.  The problem is, we have judges who use international law and even Sharia Law in deciding court cases.   I am of the opinion that any judge who would use any law other than the Constitution in conjunction with existing local, state, and federal laws is unfit to serve on the bench.  I would be outraged if a judge cited Sharia Law in any court case, but I would also be as outraged if a judge cited biblical law that went against our laws. For example, it would be just as wrong to cite Sharia Law in deciding a case as it would be for a judge to rule based on the book of Leviticus, if Leviticus conflicts with existing law.

Religion has its place in our society, but even religion cannot and should not be cited over our laws.  If a law goes against your religion, you should obey your religion, however our courts should not decide based on that.  If you believe it is always wrong to kill, you should never be compelled to take part in our nation’s defense.  However, if your religion says you should kill someone who disagrees with you, that would be an infringement on someone else’s right to live so you cannot exercise your religion in that way.

Telling someone that they cannot have a house of worship does go against the Constitution.  Someone can build a house of worship on their property.  This is a right to private property and a freedom of worship issue.  However, if that group intends on hurting someone, they would be infringing on the rights of others.  At that point they should be jailed and dealt with.  The problem is, there must be a crime committed or planned before you can just jail someone.  Otherwise, there is no problem.

It is understandable that there is a fear of Islam.  Islam is a mysterious religion to many of us in a Western Culture.  That brings some fear.  Judaism, Buddhism, Hinduism, etc. also has a fear attached to it.  Heck, even Roman Catholicism has some who fear it, as does Mormonism.  Add to that mysterious nature the events of September 11 and you’ve got reason to be fearful.

One thing we have to be careful of is that we do not fear that every Muslim is a terrorist or wanting to replace the Constituion with Sharia Law.  Regardless of your thought of what Islam says, that doesn’t mean every Muslim interprets it that way.  Our Constitution does not grant rights to groups.  It grants rights to all individuals.  What we do to one group, may also be done to us later.

This brings us to the recent happenings in Oslo, Norway.  A “fundamentalist Christian” (not my words, but the words being used in the media) went against the teachings of Jesus and killed more than 90 people.  Back in 1995, 168 people were killed by another “fundamentalist Christian” (again, not my words).

If we curtail the rights of Muslims, we are in effect saying that if a religion poses some type of danger, it is okay to curtail their religious rights.  Don’t think that this won’t happen.  Society is becoming more secular.  Europe became more secular and allowed the murder of millions of Jews.  Don’t think the same cannot happen in the United States.

How do we stop this trend toward animosity of religion, especially Christianity?  There are really only two ways.  The first is a mass conversion a la the Great Awakening.  The second is the expansion of liberty.  As the meaning of the Constitution is twisted and eroded, we are allowing a path for us to face persecution in the future.  We should never limit our liberty on that front.

I don’t mean to be a fear-monger.  Fear is not healthy.  Fear leads to emotional thought rather than rational thought.  I do fear that people do not believe that any of this can happen in America.  The problem is, it does happen.  The free exercise of Christianity is regulated by the government every year as Christmas draws closer.  People have been jailed for sharing their beliefs right here in the USA.  Mobs do crazy things and if you think for one second that a large tragedy on the scale of 9/11 or larger would not turn the general population against Christians, you are sadly mistaken.  All we can do is try to ensure that our Constitutional rights cannot be trampled on by a majority.  That is what it means to be a constitutional republic.

 

Posted in Constitutional Issues, International News, National News, National Politics, News, Politics, Religion | Leave a comment

Yes Ma’am, I Do. Highest Honors.

Posted in National News, National Politics, News, Politics, Quotes of the Week | Leave a comment

Herman Cain Believes a Community Can Overrule the Constitution

Posted in Constitutional Issues, National News, National Politics, News, Politics, Religion | Leave a comment

A Mandate on Recycling? (Vote in Poll)

OK.  I will be one of the first to say that I have a problem with ObamaCare and its mandate that citizens purchase healthcare or face fines.  Now it seems that a local Republican mayor is pushing for a mandate that his town’s residents recycle or face fines.  Well, ok… not exactly “fines” but “rate increases.”  I still have a problem with government mandating this even if it is at the local level.  Recycling may be a good thing, but I don’t believe a mandate on recycling is good.  Kelly Wolfe seems to agree.  Read about it in the Herald & Tribune.

What about cases such as Haskell Greene’s.

 

Is Jonesborough’s plan to mandate that citizens recycle or face higher garbage fees a good idea?
Yes. Government can mandate that its citizens do things if they are beneficial.
Yes. It may be unconstitutional, but the end justifies the means.
No. It is constitutional for government to mandate things like this, but it shouldn’t in this case.
No. Government cannot mandate citizens to recycle.
Undecided/Unsure.
Yes. (Other Reason – Comment in comments section)
No. (Other Reason – Comment in comments section)

  
pollcode.com free polls
Posted in Constitutional Issues, Local News, Local Politics, News, Politics | Leave a comment

Caylee’s Law a Bad Law

Nothing creates bad law like tragedy.  The death of Caylee Anthony was a tragedy.  There is no denying that.  Her mother was found guilty in the media and in the court of popular opinion, but she was found not guilty when it mattered in the court room.

Now there is a push on facebook to get a law passed, known as Caylee’s Law, that would “make it a federal offense and a felony for a parent or guardian to fail to report a child’s disappearance to law enforcement.”

It may be a great idea for all states to make it an offense for a parent to fail to report a child’s disappearance to law enforcement.  It is, however, a bad idea to make it a federal offense.

The law books are filled with bad laws because they are illegal laws under the Constitution.  Crimes should always be state crimes unless they are crimes against the federal government, are across state lines, or meets other constitutionally required reasons to be a federal crime.

If we ignore the Constitution in one point, it devalues it in all.  You cannot simply make a law federal because you think it is a good idea.  It would also be a miscarriage to try someone twice for the same offense, once under federal crimes and the other time as a state crime.  This should be considered double jeopardy, though at times it has not been as Michael Vick was charged with federal and state crimes.

On that facebook page, I also saw one woman who wanted to do away with the double jeopardy law.  Her reasoning was the defendant is allowed an appeal, so why shouldn’t a person be able to be re-charged for the same crimes.  Without the double jeopardy protection, the defendant could be continually oppressed and harassed over a crime he may or may not have committed.

Tragedies occur often.  Some are more famous than others, but legislation that accompanies these tragedies is too often bad legislation.  Tragedies seldom allow for rational thought.  Fear and anger are emotions that cloud rational thought, bringing emotional thoughts.  You must look at what a law would in effect do now, but also what it will do and allow to happen in the future.

Posted in Constitutional Issues, National News, National Politics, News, Politics | Leave a comment

Fan Dies from Fall at MLB Game

Posted in National News, News, Sports | Leave a comment

You Can Lead a Horse to Water

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-us-iraq-20110706,0,1121046.story

The War in Iraq enjoyed great support at the beginning of the campaign in 2003.  I, myself, was one of the supporters.  Looking back, I think that we as a country had been attacked and was looking and willing to attack anyone and everyone who we believed to have been involved with any type of terrorism.  Iraq has long been a supporter of terrorism in some form or another.  That fact is indisputable.  It does seem that Iraq had little to nothing to do with the 9/11 attacks.  That does not mean it wasn’t a war to be fought at that time.  I am not wanting to rehash whether or not the war was justified.  At this point, we have to deal with what we have today.

What we have today is a war-torn country that we are rebuilding.  What we have is a country that we are pushing democracy on.  The problem is a democracy is not necessarily free.  Lots of countries have democracies.  They aren’t free.  In some cases the status quo leadership decides who can win.  In some cases the groups running are not concerned with freedom.  A democracy is mob-rule.  A majority or those placed in power can run all over those who are in the minority or not in power.  We are setting them up for failure.

Look at the Palestinians.  The Palestinians have the power to elect their leadership and they gave that power to Hamas.  “Democracy” is sweeping throughout the Arab world.  The Muslim Brotherhood is winning power throughout the Arab world.  Democracy is not a good thing.

Freedom is a good thing.  A democracy does not provide freedom.  We aren’t a democracy.  We are a republic.  We elect leaders, but our leaders and the majority cannot go against the inalienable rights we have.  They cannot take away the rights of the minority.

I do understand that we, the United States, are trying to provide freedom in the world where no freedom (or limited freedom) exists.  We have only seen two well-known sayings in action as we have done that.  You can lead a horse to water but you can’t make him drink.  We have also seen that you can give a man a fish and he will eat for a day, but if you teach a man to fish he can eat for a lifetime.  The problem is he has to want to eat fish and I am not sure that the world wants freedom.  If they do, they will only appreciate it if they achieve it for themselves.

Our foreign policy needs to be built completely on what is best for the United States.  We just have to decide the best way for that to occur.  I am not sure leaving troops indefinitely and rebuilding does that.  Armies are not created to build, rather they are created to destroy.  Requiring them to rebuild places them in at unneeded risk.

Posted in International News, International Politics, National News, National Politics, News, Politics | Leave a comment