The Arrowood Dispatch South Carolina GOP Primary Predictions

1) Newt Gingrich - Newt slows down Mitt’s momentum and disrupts the coronation of Mitt Romney.

2) Mitt Romney – Mitt Romney goes from winning being the first candidate to win Iowa and New Hampshire and having a big win in South Carolina to losing Iowa, winning New Hampshire, and losing South Carolina.  Will there be some panic?

3)  Ron Paul - Ron Paul has taken it easy with South Carolina, a state he did not expect to do well in.  As has always been the case, he does better than the polls show to get a strong third.

4) Rick Santorum – Another weak showing but in a state he should have been able to do well in.  The social conservatives are lining up behind Newt and Santorum might as well withdraw from the race… but he won’t.

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The Arrowood Dispatch New Hampshire GOP Primary Predictions

1) Mitt Romney – It appears that he has obtained an insurmountable lead in New Hampshire, but 2nd will be much closer than most believe.

2) Ron Paul - A poll was released recently that listed Ron Paul as one of the strongest candidates in the general election.  Paul will poll higher than previously believed.

3) Jon Huntsman - Huntsman will finish third, but won’t be as close to second as some had predicted.  While he needed to finish top 3 to get a better position, underperforming may actually hurt.

4) Newt Gingrich - A fourth place finish will prove Santorum was just another flavor of the week.  Gingrich will get stronger in South Carolina and Santorum will drop.

5) Rick Santorum – Santorum really falls flat if he finishes here.

6) Rick Perry - Perry will finish weakly before South Carolina.

 

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The Arrowood Dispatch Iowa GOP Caucus Predictions

The 2012 Race for the White House is well underway.  In one day the first ballots will be cast.  Trying to predict the finish is nearly impossible, but why not?

1) Rick Santorum – With many potential caucus-goers having not made up their minds as of yet and with so many willing to change their vote, Rick Santorum really stands to gain.  He has hit his stride at the best possible time.  No one has the ability to come at him now that he is surging due to a lack of time and he could very possibly become the anti-Romney.  The question is this.  Will his statements saying he would bomb Iran as president help or hurt?

2) Ron Paul - If the anti-Romney does not consolidate behind Santorum, Paul is definitely able to move to the top spot.  That being said, I think it will lineup behind Santorum.  Polls cannot accurately determine how many Democrat cross-overs will vote in the GOP caucus.  If it is higher than normal, Paul can really have a shot.  If it is lower than expected, Paul will have to rely solely on the ability of his supporters to turn out more so than the supporters of the other candidates.

3) Mitt Romney – Romney voters really have the least amount of reason to turnout.  He does not bring any type of excitement whether it be that positive excitement that Romney gives nor does he have the excitement to get votes against another candidate.  The perceived frontrunner has the ability to take a major hit or he could remain at the top in Iowa.

4) Rick Perry - Within a point in polling with Newt, Perry will get some of the undecideds coming his way whereas Newt is still heading downward.  The lack of organization will hurt.

5) Newt Gingrich -  Still falling, Newt will find himself just ahead of Bachmann when the votes are counted.  He is hurting his totals by saying he doesn’t think he will win.  This could help put Perry ahead of him.

6) Michelle Bachmann - Unable to gain traction since winning the Ames Straw Poll, Bachmann will finish last out of the candidates who have run in Iowa.

7) Jon Huntsman - Huntsman chose not to be active in Iowa.  It will show in the results.

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The Ron Paul Problem

I have read where several people have ideas about Ron Paul and how he is a problem for the GOP to have a chance against Obama. When one adds up those statements, it really does not add up.

1) Ron Paul has a small group of supporters.
2) Ron Paul does not have any appeal to the average GOP voter.
3) Ron Paul is getting his votes from Democrats trying to influence the GOP nomination.
4) Ron Paul followers will not vote for any other GOP nominee.
5) A Ron Paul 3rd Party run will destroy the GOP chances of beating Obama.

My question is this. If 1-4 is true, why would people worry that such a small amount of people who wouldn’t support the GOP nominee anyway might vote for a 3rd Party candidate?

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Why Herman Cain is a Bad Choice for the Republican Nomination

I like Herman Cain.  While he is not my choice in the GOP nomination process, I would not have had many qualms about voting for him over Barack Obama.  As he is getting the attention of a frontrunner, it is becoming more clear that he is not a good choice for the nomination and possibly even not a good choice for the presidency if he does become the GOP nominee.  (I am not saying he is not better than Obama but that he is not a good choice.)

However you want to look at it, 9-9-9 is a plan that deals solely with tax policy.  It does nothing about spending.  It also creates a new tax stream.  It doesn’t replace one.  What we need is someone who is going to CUT spending and government.  What we need is someone who is going to make sure taxes are LOWERED, not simply rearranged.

Cain’s campaign is also a complete disaster.  He is a likeable guy.  This is why he continues to be at the top though it is obvious he doesn’t know a whole heck of a lot.  Here is a guy who is running for President of the United States who didn’t know China had nukes, nor did he know anything about “the right of return” in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.  He also didn’t know what the term “neoconservative” meant.  He also says an electric fence needs to be built along the Mexico border, then changes the story to say it was a joke, and then revisited the idea of it possibly being electrified.  Cain said he would not allow a Muslim to serve under him but later flip-flopped.  He said a local area had the right to overrule the freedom of worship (which I attribute to an overzealous attempt to seize on the 10th Amendment), and has also said that state governments have a right to limit the 2nd Amendment (see last note).  [The 10th Amendment actually says anything not mentioned in the Constitution is left to the states and the people... Not that the 1st or 2nd Amendment is left to the states or the people.]  There was also the misspeak concerning abortion.  It is actually humorous that “strength and clarity” is this guys campaign mantra.

Tons of people are saying we don’t need a professional politician but that doesn’t mean we need Ronald McDonald in the White House.  People are fine with politicians but we don’t like the political games.  We do like the idea that politicians at least know what issues are about even if we disagree with what their stance is on an issue.

Now comes the race card.  Cain is not being hit because of his race.  He is being hit because he is ahead in an election.  He is also being hit because he is an easy target.

I am not down with those defending Cain.  Cain does not need to be defended.  Cain needs to defend himself and say those things did not happen.  Motivation does not matter.  What matters is whether or not Cain sexually harassed females who were working with him.

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2012 GOP Race Update

Michelle Bachmann - Still free falling.  She is trying to set herself up as the anti-Obama.  It isn’t working.  There are no less than four men ahead of you in polling.  Three of them are opposite Obama.  We need to see why you are better candidates than your GOP rivals.  We know any of you are better than Obama already.

Herman Cain – The wheels are falling off 9-9-9.  All the other candidates are attacking it.  Whether it does or not, people are going to feel that it opens to many veins of taxes to be raised at a later time.  If 9-9-9 is destroyed, so is Cain.  On a side note, Cain is a very likeable guy.  He just talks before he understands and thinks out issues.  He then has to flip-flop on issues.  He hurts himself each time he does.  I worry about the fact that he has little knowledge on several issues.  He generally comes around to the right side of issues, but will he once he gets some power?  Things like saying whether a state follows the 2nd Amendment is up to the individual states is troubling.

Newt Gingrich - Newt is lying low.  He isn’t making big waves.  He throws out one-liners consistently.  He doesn’t need to do a lot.  He needs to hang in and surge at the right time.  He is a solid performer that needs to stay in the game to have a chance late.

Jon Huntsman – Huntsman is making a power play for New Hampshire.  He is attacking the frontrunner, Romney, for taking part in Nevada, who is moving up in the primary schedule, threatening New Hampshire’s status as first in the nation.  All his eggs are in New Hampshire’s basket.  If he wins, he gives himself a better shot but not a sure thing.  It is all he has.  If he loses New Hampshire, he is definitely done.

Ron Paul - Paul has set himself up well with his budget.  He has even gotten backing on his plan from Rush Limbaugh.  He is setting himself up much better than most anyone could have expected.  He is sitting at the number one spot in several power rankings for Iowa.  Nevada is expected to come down between Romney and Paul.  If he gets those two early states and people are serious about cutting the budget, he has a chance.  If he gets neither of those states he has set a tone for the debate this go around.

Rick Perry – Made a good play to get back in the game.  He went hard after Romney and Cain.  He had to in order to get back in.  He over-played his hand and may drop.  The one thing that may save him is that while people do not like negativity, it does work or politicians would have stopped it long ago.

Mitt Romney – All he has to do is develop a good defense and not get too hot.  As a frontrunner just try and stay there until the end.

Rick Santorum - Why is he still in this?

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Romney on the Issues: Abortion

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Ames Straw Poll Results

Michelle Bachmann 4823 votes (28.55%):  Bachmann gets a huge boost.  She cements herself as a front-runner, and I would argue this may boost her up to the frontrunner.

Ron Paul 4761 votes (27.65%):  Ron Paul gets a boost.  He certainly does not become a front-runner.  His candidacy is growing but not at the point where he would win if the elections were today.  He will have to continue to grow his grassroots and get people to believe he can win.  Many of the talking heads will still discount his ability to win, but some may view him as a possibility and take a closer look.  If foreign policy is not a major issue and the economy gets worse, expect him to have a good shot in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada.  If foreign policy is the major issue, that will hurt him with the rank and file Republicans.  The election is a long ways off, but if he were to win in one of the early states, he could have a shot.

Tim Pawlenty 2293 votes (13.6%):  Pawlenty is able to stay in the race with a third place finish, but this makes Pawlenty less relevant.

Rick Santorum 1657 votes (9.8%): Santorum’s expectations were low.  He did better than most might have thought.  This gives him a boost and makes him or more serious candidate.

Herman Cain 1456 votes (8.6%): Cain’s showing in Iowa is a hit to Cain.  Cain did not have high expectations but a finish behind Santorum really has to hurt.  Don’t be surprised to see Cain drop out if he is unable to gain back some traction soon.

Rick Perry 700+ votes (write-in candidate): Perry slighted the Ames Straw Poll by announcing his candidacy during the poll.  He still was able to get a high showing even as a write-in candidate.

Mitt Romney 567 votes: Really, who cares if you didn’t spend money to try and win the poll?  If you are a front-runner, you do not lose this badly in a poll.  Also, if you are a front-runner, you do not lose to someone who is a write-in candidate who also did not get into Iowa.  Mitt Romney has to be hurt by this.

Newt Gingrich 385 votes: This should end the Gingrich candidacy.

Jon Huntsman 69 votes: This should end the Huntsman candidacy.

Thad McCotter 35 votes:  McCotter exceeded even his own expectations.  Sadly… well… that is just sad.

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Norway a Reminder of Why Liberty is Important

Recently I posted a video of Herman Cain stating that he felt that Americans had the right to choose whether or not a mosque or any religious building can be built in their community.

It was pointed out to me that when dealing with Islam there is a worry about Sharia Law.  This is an understandable fear as Sharia Law is the supreme law the Muslim world.  It should not be a fear here as the Constitution is the supreme law of the land.  The problem is, we have judges who use international law and even Sharia Law in deciding court cases.   I am of the opinion that any judge who would use any law other than the Constitution in conjunction with existing local, state, and federal laws is unfit to serve on the bench.  I would be outraged if a judge cited Sharia Law in any court case, but I would also be as outraged if a judge cited biblical law that went against our laws. For example, it would be just as wrong to cite Sharia Law in deciding a case as it would be for a judge to rule based on the book of Leviticus, if Leviticus conflicts with existing law.

Religion has its place in our society, but even religion cannot and should not be cited over our laws.  If a law goes against your religion, you should obey your religion, however our courts should not decide based on that.  If you believe it is always wrong to kill, you should never be compelled to take part in our nation’s defense.  However, if your religion says you should kill someone who disagrees with you, that would be an infringement on someone else’s right to live so you cannot exercise your religion in that way.

Telling someone that they cannot have a house of worship does go against the Constitution.  Someone can build a house of worship on their property.  This is a right to private property and a freedom of worship issue.  However, if that group intends on hurting someone, they would be infringing on the rights of others.  At that point they should be jailed and dealt with.  The problem is, there must be a crime committed or planned before you can just jail someone.  Otherwise, there is no problem.

It is understandable that there is a fear of Islam.  Islam is a mysterious religion to many of us in a Western Culture.  That brings some fear.  Judaism, Buddhism, Hinduism, etc. also has a fear attached to it.  Heck, even Roman Catholicism has some who fear it, as does Mormonism.  Add to that mysterious nature the events of September 11 and you’ve got reason to be fearful.

One thing we have to be careful of is that we do not fear that every Muslim is a terrorist or wanting to replace the Constituion with Sharia Law.  Regardless of your thought of what Islam says, that doesn’t mean every Muslim interprets it that way.  Our Constitution does not grant rights to groups.  It grants rights to all individuals.  What we do to one group, may also be done to us later.

This brings us to the recent happenings in Oslo, Norway.  A “fundamentalist Christian” (not my words, but the words being used in the media) went against the teachings of Jesus and killed more than 90 people.  Back in 1995, 168 people were killed by another “fundamentalist Christian” (again, not my words).

If we curtail the rights of Muslims, we are in effect saying that if a religion poses some type of danger, it is okay to curtail their religious rights.  Don’t think that this won’t happen.  Society is becoming more secular.  Europe became more secular and allowed the murder of millions of Jews.  Don’t think the same cannot happen in the United States.

How do we stop this trend toward animosity of religion, especially Christianity?  There are really only two ways.  The first is a mass conversion a la the Great Awakening.  The second is the expansion of liberty.  As the meaning of the Constitution is twisted and eroded, we are allowing a path for us to face persecution in the future.  We should never limit our liberty on that front.

I don’t mean to be a fear-monger.  Fear is not healthy.  Fear leads to emotional thought rather than rational thought.  I do fear that people do not believe that any of this can happen in America.  The problem is, it does happen.  The free exercise of Christianity is regulated by the government every year as Christmas draws closer.  People have been jailed for sharing their beliefs right here in the USA.  Mobs do crazy things and if you think for one second that a large tragedy on the scale of 9/11 or larger would not turn the general population against Christians, you are sadly mistaken.  All we can do is try to ensure that our Constitutional rights cannot be trampled on by a majority.  That is what it means to be a constitutional republic.

 

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Yes Ma’am, I Do. Highest Honors.

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Herman Cain Believes a Community Can Overrule the Constitution

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A Mandate on Recycling? (Vote in Poll)

OK.  I will be one of the first to say that I have a problem with ObamaCare and its mandate that citizens purchase healthcare or face fines.  Now it seems that a local Republican mayor is pushing for a mandate that his town’s residents recycle or face fines.  Well, ok… not exactly “fines” but “rate increases.”  I still have a problem with government mandating this even if it is at the local level.  Recycling may be a good thing, but I don’t believe a mandate on recycling is good.  Kelly Wolfe seems to agree.  Read about it in the Herald & Tribune.

What about cases such as Haskell Greene’s.

 

Is Jonesborough’s plan to mandate that citizens recycle or face higher garbage fees a good idea?
Yes. Government can mandate that its citizens do things if they are beneficial.
Yes. It may be unconstitutional, but the end justifies the means.
No. It is constitutional for government to mandate things like this, but it shouldn’t in this case.
No. Government cannot mandate citizens to recycle.
Undecided/Unsure.
Yes. (Other Reason – Comment in comments section)
No. (Other Reason – Comment in comments section)

  
pollcode.com free polls
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Caylee’s Law a Bad Law

Nothing creates bad law like tragedy.  The death of Caylee Anthony was a tragedy.  There is no denying that.  Her mother was found guilty in the media and in the court of popular opinion, but she was found not guilty when it mattered in the court room.

Now there is a push on facebook to get a law passed, known as Caylee’s Law, that would “make it a federal offense and a felony for a parent or guardian to fail to report a child’s disappearance to law enforcement.”

It may be a great idea for all states to make it an offense for a parent to fail to report a child’s disappearance to law enforcement.  It is, however, a bad idea to make it a federal offense.

The law books are filled with bad laws because they are illegal laws under the Constitution.  Crimes should always be state crimes unless they are crimes against the federal government, are across state lines, or meets other constitutionally required reasons to be a federal crime.

If we ignore the Constitution in one point, it devalues it in all.  You cannot simply make a law federal because you think it is a good idea.  It would also be a miscarriage to try someone twice for the same offense, once under federal crimes and the other time as a state crime.  This should be considered double jeopardy, though at times it has not been as Michael Vick was charged with federal and state crimes.

On that facebook page, I also saw one woman who wanted to do away with the double jeopardy law.  Her reasoning was the defendant is allowed an appeal, so why shouldn’t a person be able to be re-charged for the same crimes.  Without the double jeopardy protection, the defendant could be continually oppressed and harassed over a crime he may or may not have committed.

Tragedies occur often.  Some are more famous than others, but legislation that accompanies these tragedies is too often bad legislation.  Tragedies seldom allow for rational thought.  Fear and anger are emotions that cloud rational thought, bringing emotional thoughts.  You must look at what a law would in effect do now, but also what it will do and allow to happen in the future.

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Fan Dies from Fall at MLB Game

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You Can Lead a Horse to Water

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-us-iraq-20110706,0,1121046.story

The War in Iraq enjoyed great support at the beginning of the campaign in 2003.  I, myself, was one of the supporters.  Looking back, I think that we as a country had been attacked and was looking and willing to attack anyone and everyone who we believed to have been involved with any type of terrorism.  Iraq has long been a supporter of terrorism in some form or another.  That fact is indisputable.  It does seem that Iraq had little to nothing to do with the 9/11 attacks.  That does not mean it wasn’t a war to be fought at that time.  I am not wanting to rehash whether or not the war was justified.  At this point, we have to deal with what we have today.

What we have today is a war-torn country that we are rebuilding.  What we have is a country that we are pushing democracy on.  The problem is a democracy is not necessarily free.  Lots of countries have democracies.  They aren’t free.  In some cases the status quo leadership decides who can win.  In some cases the groups running are not concerned with freedom.  A democracy is mob-rule.  A majority or those placed in power can run all over those who are in the minority or not in power.  We are setting them up for failure.

Look at the Palestinians.  The Palestinians have the power to elect their leadership and they gave that power to Hamas.  “Democracy” is sweeping throughout the Arab world.  The Muslim Brotherhood is winning power throughout the Arab world.  Democracy is not a good thing.

Freedom is a good thing.  A democracy does not provide freedom.  We aren’t a democracy.  We are a republic.  We elect leaders, but our leaders and the majority cannot go against the inalienable rights we have.  They cannot take away the rights of the minority.

I do understand that we, the United States, are trying to provide freedom in the world where no freedom (or limited freedom) exists.  We have only seen two well-known sayings in action as we have done that.  You can lead a horse to water but you can’t make him drink.  We have also seen that you can give a man a fish and he will eat for a day, but if you teach a man to fish he can eat for a lifetime.  The problem is he has to want to eat fish and I am not sure that the world wants freedom.  If they do, they will only appreciate it if they achieve it for themselves.

Our foreign policy needs to be built completely on what is best for the United States.  We just have to decide the best way for that to occur.  I am not sure leaving troops indefinitely and rebuilding does that.  Armies are not created to build, rather they are created to destroy.  Requiring them to rebuild places them in at unneeded risk.

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Obama Can’t Stop the Execution

News stories are out declaring that President Obama wants to stop the execution of Humberto Leal Garcia, a Mexican national, who was convicted of the rape and murder of a 16 year-old girl in San Antonio, Texas.

Since this is a state criminal offense, Obama is unable to offer a pardon, however that is not stopping Obama from seeking to get the Supreme Court from blocking the execution of Garcia.

Being unable to grant a pardon is part of the separation of our government into a national/federal government and state governments.  This is part of the rights of a state.  Granting Obama’s request would go against the separation of powers between the federal government and the state governments.

Obama’s request is based on the idea that the execution would put the United States outside of international law.  To have the Supreme Court step in would go against the Constitution, so we will see whether international law or our own Constitution is supreme.

The Supremacy Clause of the Constitution states that the Constitution, laws therof, and treaties are the supreme law of the land.  There is no doubt, however, that the Founders never meant for treaties (or any type of international law) to be another way of amending the Constitution.

There are two ways for amendments to be added:
1) 2/3 majority in each house of Congress and then ratification by 3/4 of the state legislatures.
2) 2/3 of states call for a Constitutional Convention and then acceptance by 3/4 of the state legislatures.

Neither of those options are by way of signing treaties, therfore any treaty cannot overrule Constitutional Law.  That is how it should be, however judges rule based on what they feel is right and not on the Constitution.

I feel that just to make it plain, there should be a Constitutional Amendment stating that any treaty or law not in line with the Constitution is completely invalid.

Looking at the trial, the exact reason Obama wants this overturned is because Garcia did not know he could request help from the Mexican consulate, in accordance with international law.  The premise is that he admitted to the rape and killing because he did not receive word for the consulate telling him not to talk.  Living in the United States, however, he knew he had the right to remain silent and should have known he had the right to a lawyer.  He had lived in the US since he was two.  Ignorance of the law is no excuse if you break the law.  Why should there be an exception here?

Garcia talked though he had received his Miranda rights.  Now he has to pay the price.

Rick Perry’s stock is rising as a result of ignoring Obama’s calls.  His stock must also be rising as he also ignores the cause of the disappointment who was President George W. Bush.

I am not the biggest death penalty supporter.  There is evidence that it costs more to put someone to death that to imprison someone for life.  I also not completely comfortable with the idea that someone can be put to death (which is permanent) and later be found to have not committed the crime.  I am sure it doesn’t happen often, but it would make me sick to think I had allowed this to happen if I had the power to commute the sentence.  That being said, it should be an option for the most heinous crime wherein there is no doubt as to guilt.  This seems to be that very case.

Perry is right to press onward with the execution.  I also would not be surprised in the least if by the small chance that the Supreme Court orders a stay of execution if Perry orders the execution to proceed anyway.

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Not Guilty

Our justice system uses jury trials to decide the innocence or guilt of defendants.  Sometimes innocent people are in the wrong place at the wrong time and convicted of crimes that they did not committ.  Other times it is possible that those who have committed a crime may get off.  The Casey Anthony trial is one that probably falls into that last group.

A jury system is a check against government power.  To be against trial by jury is to be for an overly powerful government.  Jury trials also require the citizenry to maintain a certain knowledge of our judicial system as trials are open and require citizens to participate from time to time.

Another great part of our judicial system is the idea that we are innocent until proven guilty.  This puts the burden on the prosecution.  Self-government without this idea is impossible as power would be grabbed and the enemies of that person or group would be jailed on trumped charges.  Innocent until proven guilty keeps us free.

A basic idea of the burden of proof lying with the prosecution is that they must prove beyond a reasonable doubt.

That brings us to this formula:  The defendant is innocent until proven guilty + The prosecution must prove the defendant committed a crime + The proof must be beyond a reasonable doubt = Guilt.  Anything less must be a verdict of innocence.  The jury is not to blame if the prosecution cannot meet all of the criteria for a guilty verdict.

The OJ Simpson trial is a benchmark of this.  The question has been often asked in the past.  Did OJ committ murder?  My opinion is that he did.  The one piece of evidence that destroyed the prosecution was the bloody glove.  The prosecution hailed this bloody glove as part of the proof against OJ.  The problem was, the glove did not fit.  The prosecution could not answer that question and allowed OJ to go free.

Facebook is busting at the seems with the verdict from the Casey Anthony trial.  Casey Anthony was on trial for murdering her own two-year old child.  Some of the evidence against Casey Anthony was that her child was missing, but she did not file a missing person’s report; Casey Anthony lied countless times about her daughter’s whereabouts;  Casey Anthony lied numerous times to investigators; etc.

The defense created a story-line that stated that the child had accidently drowned and that the family tried to cover-up the accident.

The prosecution must be able to prove that their list of events happened.  Did they?  No.  The behavior of Casey Anthony speaks more loudly than the prosecution’s story, but a person’s behavior is not what guilt and innocence is built on.  It is built on whether or not the prosecution and law enforcement gather enough evidence to prove the defendant committed the crime.  With no witnesses to the crime and no DNA-evidence that the defendant had committed the murder, the prosecution had to turn to swaying the jurors’ feelings against Casey Anthony.  They did a bang up job of portraying her as an uncaring mother who more than likely murdered her own child, but that does not equal a guilty verdict.

Is Casey Anthony a murderer?  I would say she is.  Did the prosecution meet the reasonable doubt threshold?  No, and that is why she is going to be freed.

This brings forth the question of whether or not a trial by jury is outdated.  The answer is that our freedom depends on this right.  I am not sure how much longer we will be able to keep it, however, as the idea of innocent until proven guilty is not always true as has been seen in recent decisions involving traffic cameras.  We need not let emotion and fear of allowing the guilty go free to erode at our basic freedoms anymore.

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AL East: Boston Red Sox, NY Yankees, Tampa Rays, Toronto Blue Jays, Baltimore Orioles

AL Central: Chicago White Sox, Minnesota Twins, Detroit Tigers, Cleveland Indians, Kansas City Royals.

AL West: Texas Rangers, Oakland A’s, Anaheim Angels, Seattle Mariners

AL Wildcard: NY Yankees

NL East: Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies, Florida Marlins, Washington Nationals, NY Mets

NL Central: Cincinatti Reds, Milwaukee Brewers, St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago Cubs, Pittsburgh Pirates, Houston Astros

NL West: SF Giants, Colorado Rockies, LA Dodgers, SD Padres, Arizona Diamond Backs

NL Wildcard: Philadelphia Phillies

World Series: Atlanta Braves – Boston Red Sox

Champion: Boston Red Sox

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Political Expediency v. True Conservatism

The 2008 elections showed that the electorate was extremely dissatisfied with the status quo.  The electorate really did want “CHANGE.”  The voters did not want secrecy.  The voters did not want a larger presence of “Big Brother.”  The people did not want limitless spending.  The people did not want sky high debts.

Barack Obama pounced on the unrest.  He spoke eloquently, unlike President Bush who spoke like an average Southerner.  The people wanted different.  They wanted open.  That is what Obama promised…  Or at least, that is what they felt he was saying.

The 2010 elections went much the same way as the 2008 elections.  In this election, people voted for change.  They did not want the big government Republicans that controlled in 2008.  They did not want the liberalism that the Democrats brought in through 2010.  They wanted less spending.  They wanted less taxes.  They wanted more freedom.  They wanted open government.

This brings me to a much more local issue… redlight and speed cameras.

East Tennessee has long been a conservative area.  I will argue that this fact makes it unsurprising that this area would have lots of these cameras. 

The worst thing someone can do in Tennessee is talk about raising taxes.  This is especially true when talking about new taxes.  Tennesseans revolted over a state income tax.  Washington Countians did the same when the county attempted to institute a wheel tax.  Tennessee and taxes do not mix well. 

We have many conservatives in local offices in East Tennessee.  They know the quickest way to no be re-elected is to raise taxes.  Those conservatives also know that the electorate will do anything if it improves safety.  What easier way is there to raise revenues without raising taxes, while improving safety?  These cameras. 

You can search and see that the cameras do not decrease accidents.  You can see that these actually increase accidents in many cases.  I am not going to get into that.  You can do your own research on that.

The fact that these cameras do not raise taxes and are said to improve safety provide an easy way of increasing revenues in the short term.  As lawbreakers break the law, local coffers are filled with money.  If this creates a bridge until the economy improves, that means less cuts in services.  Once the economy comes back, that means there will be a big surplus without raising taxes sooner rather than later.  This means… more services.  It is a win-win, right?

Wrong.  The economy is cyclical.  A boom cannot last forever.  The economy will come back.  It will fall again.  What happens when the people become smarter in not running the red lights and they slow down?  Those revenues disappear.  That is going to hit hard as cuts become necessary because of the new services.  Then, what happens when the economy takes another hit?  That is even more.  Tax increases then become very necessary.  Luckily for for the current politicians, they will quite possibly be long gone when that happens.  They won’t share in the blame. 

All of a sudden, the political expediency of the cameras will cause a future increase of taxes.  Is this something we can have?  There is going to be a huge debt.  We are not going to have that monkey off of our backs by then.  Debt will choke off part of our future already.  Can we afford to let tax increases do the same?

Let’s not kid ourselves.  It is expedient to use cameras to raise revenue instead of making needed cuts.  These cameras are also not about safety.  If these cameras were primarily about safety, that means we are saying that these are the best way to improve safety.  They are not.

I would propose getting rid of the cameras, increasing fines of running redlights, and increasing the yellow light time. 

I have noticed that yellow light times do not always give you time to go through a red light.  I can specifically say that shortly after the cameras were placed in Johnson City that you did not have time to proceed through the intersection at West Market and State of Franklin without getting caught by the light. 

If the state created a mandatory minimum yellow light time, and an added yellow light time for distance and slow speed, they could effectively insure that no one could accidently run a yellow light.  For example, you could say that a yellow light time must be a minimum of 6 seconds.  Then you begin adding seconds to that light for speed limits of under 45 mph and extended distances between the stop bar and the actual light.  This would improve safety.  The reason this hasn’t been done is that it doesn’t provide the revenue that cameras do. 

This is just the latest way that conservatives have lost their way.  It is a backdoor attempt to tax.  Republicans have been called out over spending.  Now they need to be called out over raising taxes.  Any revenue that government takes in is realistically a tax. 

A true conservative would seek alternatives to creating new taxes.  A true conservative would not sacrifice their honor for political expediency.

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Letter to the Legislature: School Safety

The following is a letter that I have sent to the Tennessee Legislature.

Dear Legislator:

I am writing this letter in hopes that our schools can become safer learning environments.  Many schools have been able to find funding to have a police officer on campus during the school day.  This is common place at many high schools it seems.  This is not always so common at the elementary and middle school level.  This does not mean that these places are immune from the problems that may require such a need.

 As a middle school teacher and coach, I am fully aware of problems that plague students at that level.  I am also aware that some students at this age are fully capable of causing bodily harm to others.  I also realize that students at this age are not immune from custodial fights that could cause problems to erupt into chaos even at the middle school. 

These problems can erupt at any school level.  No school will always be immune.  That is why I am requesting the new Tennessee legislature to be proactive in making sure that nothing occurs because funds are not available to pay for a police officer to be on every school campus in the state of Tennessee. 

There have been school shootings at Knoxville Central High School in August 2008 and at Inskip Elementary School in Knoxville in February 2010.  There was also a school shooting at Sullivan Central High School in Blountville, TN in August 2010.  All of these schools are within an hour and a half driving distance.  Administration and faculty members of my school even sat through in-services with some who became victims of these shootings. 

I am asking members of the legislature to sponsor or support bills that would help alleviate problems that may arise as a result of the lack of funds and bills which would help to reduce the number of potential victims of such crimes. 

I would propose that the legislature move to allow and even instruct local police departments to deputize and train some teachers or administrators in schools.  I would not ask for any extra money be tied to this for teacher pay for those who do so.  I would hope that teachers in each school would volunteer in making our schools safer.  However, I would ask that there not be any financial burden put on the teachers to maintain training. 

I do not know Tennessee law well enough to know what current law is on this, but I ask that our legislators move to make it legal so that even those smaller schools can have a safer environment.

As a matter of disclosure, I do want to say that I am requesting this on my own.  I am not running this idea by any union.  I am not speaking on the behalf of any union.  These are my own thoughts.  I just feel that this would be another way of making schools safer.  I do not want this to be a partisan issue.

Also, I am fully aware that many times someone else other than the legislator is the first to read and respond to e-mails.  I have e-mailed legislators in the past that I know personally only to get an impersonal reply that I know was not actually from that legislator.  I would ask that each legislator read this e-mail himself or herself and weigh the merits. 

Sincerely,

Joshua Arrowood

Teacher/Coach/Political Blogger

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